* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 57 61 68 76 84 90 93 96 96 94 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 57 61 68 76 84 90 93 55 46 44 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 58 61 69 80 92 101 105 61 49 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 10 4 3 7 2 7 4 11 9 13 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -1 -1 -2 1 1 SHEAR DIR 234 260 299 325 116 1 10 27 31 1 357 357 360 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.3 28.6 28.9 28.8 28.4 28.5 28.9 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 145 146 143 142 145 149 147 141 144 150 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 143 145 146 141 137 138 138 134 130 132 139 149 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.9 -53.2 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.0 -52.6 -51.8 -52.3 -51.3 -51.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 10 9 8 9 5 9 8 10 8 9 700-500 MB RH 60 60 62 62 65 64 70 71 74 70 71 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 12 11 11 11 13 12 13 13 15 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 66 69 69 69 77 66 67 44 45 34 36 36 53 200 MB DIV 48 28 17 38 29 24 32 22 48 29 45 59 40 700-850 TADV 0 0 -5 -4 -6 -4 -2 -9 -2 -7 -3 -4 0 LAND (KM) 257 270 241 190 188 286 182 234 193 45 -122 34 257 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.2 16.6 17.2 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.3 21.3 22.5 LONG(DEG W) 71.7 73.4 75.1 76.7 78.3 81.1 83.3 84.8 85.7 87.0 88.6 90.4 92.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 16 15 14 12 10 7 6 8 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 47 28 69 74 98 75 72 83 90 79 0 15 54 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 34. 40. 43. 46. 46. 44. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/05/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 63.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/05/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)