* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/05/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 54 55 55 55 55 51 48 44 41 39 39 V (KT) LAND 50 52 54 55 55 55 55 51 48 44 41 39 39 V (KT) LGE mod 50 54 56 58 60 61 62 61 60 58 55 52 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 6 8 11 11 8 9 22 23 29 29 28 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 11 7 5 3 7 6 0 5 1 3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 124 133 128 162 182 260 239 267 258 265 262 298 298 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.1 26.0 26.0 26.2 26.5 26.6 27.2 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 117 116 115 114 115 117 121 122 129 137 141 142 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 109 108 109 113 118 118 124 132 134 131 128 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.2 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 10 11 700-500 MB RH 64 60 61 58 56 52 49 46 43 46 50 54 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 14 13 13 12 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 41 47 53 61 69 78 81 55 33 6 -13 -37 -50 200 MB DIV 2 -5 -6 -5 -18 -7 -14 -16 -19 16 7 -2 -4 700-850 TADV -15 -9 -5 3 3 0 6 10 6 4 5 11 6 LAND (KM) 1600 1724 1848 1972 2089 1925 1738 1623 1547 1378 1107 924 851 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.3 19.2 20.2 21.3 22.6 23.9 LONG(DEG W) 32.4 33.6 34.7 35.9 37.0 39.7 43.1 46.3 49.5 52.6 55.6 58.1 60.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 12 15 16 16 16 15 14 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 23 39 23 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 488 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 1. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/05/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -6.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/05/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)