* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/05/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 45 49 52 59 67 75 81 84 87 87 87 V (KT) LAND 45 44 45 49 52 59 67 75 81 46 38 38 38 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 44 45 48 55 66 79 92 50 35 48 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 15 10 3 1 7 4 8 7 6 13 13 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -5 -4 -4 -3 -3 -5 -4 0 0 4 1 SHEAR DIR 246 290 308 318 277 34 334 19 319 11 320 345 344 SST (C) 28.0 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 143 141 140 141 147 148 146 146 148 154 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 146 143 139 136 135 140 139 137 136 136 139 145 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.2 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 8 8 7 9 8 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 60 63 65 68 73 72 73 70 66 65 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 79 78 78 54 47 36 27 25 17 25 31 200 MB DIV 27 4 26 44 35 24 33 29 51 35 31 28 27 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 -6 -4 -7 -5 -5 -6 -7 -8 LAND (KM) 333 289 245 276 328 154 122 198 15 -139 1 169 335 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.6 16.0 16.9 17.6 18.3 19.3 20.6 21.3 21.5 LONG(DEG W) 73.9 75.7 77.4 78.8 80.2 82.2 84.1 85.9 87.5 89.0 90.4 91.9 93.5 STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 15 13 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 33 71 79 102 86 67 68 72 87 0 27 47 51 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 783 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 42.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 0. 4. 7. 14. 22. 30. 36. 39. 42. 42. 42. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/05/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 96.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 74.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/05/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)