* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/05/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 53 53 53 54 54 50 49 46 44 43 41 V (KT) LAND 50 52 53 53 53 54 54 50 49 46 44 43 41 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 54 55 55 56 57 57 57 55 53 51 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 12 12 10 8 19 23 29 29 27 23 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 10 4 1 4 6 1 1 3 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 131 154 177 196 220 263 268 278 270 272 282 271 262 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.3 26.6 26.8 27.4 28.0 28.3 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 114 113 113 115 118 122 124 131 138 143 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 109 108 108 109 113 117 119 125 132 135 135 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.4 -53.4 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.4 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 53 53 49 47 43 44 45 50 54 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 12 11 11 11 12 9 9 8 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 52 56 62 73 76 73 70 42 24 -1 -22 -52 -71 200 MB DIV -6 -2 -3 -23 -17 8 -3 -1 -14 7 4 4 13 700-850 TADV -7 -1 4 1 0 2 5 7 4 2 4 0 0 LAND (KM) 1731 1861 1990 2107 2035 1900 1758 1652 1490 1291 1024 841 783 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.7 20.5 21.5 22.8 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 33.6 34.8 36.0 37.2 38.4 41.1 44.1 47.4 50.6 53.6 56.5 59.2 61.7 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 10 32 40 17 36 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 456 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 2. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/05/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 57.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 50.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/05/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)