* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/05/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 56 61 66 75 78 78 78 79 79 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 56 61 66 75 55 36 40 41 41 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 47 50 53 62 73 85 65 39 49 58 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 9 6 5 7 4 9 3 11 8 18 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -5 -4 -2 -3 -7 0 -2 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 289 303 321 295 335 348 336 282 331 316 341 342 350 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 140 140 141 142 148 148 147 148 153 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 141 138 135 136 135 142 141 139 138 140 141 142 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.4 -52.8 -52.2 -52.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 8 8 9 6 10 8 10 8 11 10 700-500 MB RH 62 61 64 67 65 72 75 76 74 71 66 64 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 11 11 12 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 87 83 75 78 63 55 38 27 6 9 14 32 42 200 MB DIV 3 1 26 27 22 32 27 44 51 35 38 23 16 700-850 TADV -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 -4 -8 -2 -14 -2 -10 0 -12 LAND (KM) 333 314 345 322 208 86 77 130 -61 -19 161 284 230 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.2 15.4 15.9 16.6 17.5 18.7 19.7 20.5 21.0 21.4 LONG(DEG W) 76.1 77.6 79.1 80.2 81.3 83.2 85.0 86.8 88.6 90.4 92.0 93.5 94.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 13 11 10 9 9 10 10 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 76 81 95 83 65 64 63 68 64 0 40 50 55 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 724 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 16. 21. 30. 33. 33. 33. 34. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/05/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 80.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/05/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)