* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/05/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 48 48 48 47 45 43 42 40 40 40 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 48 48 48 47 45 43 42 40 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 51 51 52 53 53 52 50 48 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 11 14 11 9 10 21 24 30 33 33 28 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 12 5 2 2 6 5 1 7 3 1 0 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 151 172 192 224 251 273 278 265 276 271 274 265 286 SST (C) 26.0 26.0 26.0 26.1 26.2 26.5 26.6 27.2 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 114 114 115 116 117 120 122 129 139 141 144 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 109 110 111 112 116 118 125 135 135 136 135 133 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.6 -53.6 -53.5 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.5 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 700-500 MB RH 59 57 56 52 51 48 47 41 43 46 54 57 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 6 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 54 60 71 76 76 79 64 37 12 -7 -35 -53 -73 200 MB DIV -3 1 -15 -19 -15 -9 0 -5 1 8 9 2 17 700-850 TADV -2 3 3 0 1 2 5 4 2 -1 4 1 0 LAND (KM) 1881 2010 2065 1973 1889 1743 1603 1515 1299 1058 851 710 673 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 16.6 16.7 16.9 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.7 19.5 20.6 21.9 23.2 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 35.0 36.2 37.4 38.8 40.1 42.9 46.1 49.5 52.9 55.9 58.5 61.3 64.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 15 16 16 16 14 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 28 49 27 28 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/05/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/05/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)