* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/05/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 67 74 75 77 76 77 76 V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 53 56 62 67 74 42 42 41 42 41 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 48 51 54 63 72 82 46 47 56 65 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 2 6 8 6 7 6 6 6 9 11 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -6 -3 -1 -5 -3 -4 2 -3 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 293 310 276 335 37 331 341 310 349 315 336 332 297 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 143 141 140 141 142 146 148 150 150 152 156 158 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 137 135 136 139 141 142 141 142 144 145 142 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.1 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 9 10 11 700-500 MB RH 61 63 66 66 68 73 76 74 75 70 67 63 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 12 11 12 12 11 11 9 7 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 74 70 71 57 54 48 37 26 23 18 30 34 39 200 MB DIV 7 26 41 25 20 27 28 62 51 52 56 24 30 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -3 -6 -6 -8 -8 -6 -5 -9 -5 -5 0 LAND (KM) 287 325 271 176 113 63 146 21 -100 98 257 217 45 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.7 15.9 16.4 17.1 17.8 18.7 19.7 20.8 21.5 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 77.9 79.3 80.7 81.7 82.7 84.4 86.2 88.0 89.9 91.7 93.3 95.1 96.9 STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 12 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 88 101 73 64 64 65 63 90 28 33 49 56 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 16. 18. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 22. 29. 30. 32. 31. 32. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/05/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 78.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 18.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/05/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)