* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/05/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 42 42 42 41 41 40 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 42 42 42 41 41 40 40 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 43 43 45 46 47 47 46 45 45 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 11 9 7 5 10 11 23 24 28 23 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 3 7 8 6 4 5 0 1 1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 156 183 211 248 264 270 272 250 258 273 294 298 322 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 115 115 117 118 119 121 124 134 140 142 144 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 110 110 112 113 115 117 121 131 136 136 135 135 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 56 56 56 52 50 48 44 40 44 48 54 57 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 60 71 74 75 74 74 52 30 6 -17 -42 -64 -81 200 MB DIV 0 -10 -20 -21 -9 -9 3 -11 4 0 -12 -13 25 700-850 TADV 4 5 1 -1 -1 1 1 3 -1 2 3 3 -1 LAND (KM) 1998 2043 1949 1866 1791 1639 1519 1379 1185 896 696 603 652 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.6 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.7 19.6 20.6 21.7 22.9 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 36.1 37.4 38.6 40.0 41.3 44.4 47.7 51.1 54.5 57.5 60.1 62.6 65.0 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 14 16 16 17 16 14 13 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 21 35 51 24 40 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 33.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -3. -2. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/05/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/05/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)