* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/06/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 30 29 29 30 31 33 36 38 40 42 43 V (KT) LAND 35 32 30 29 29 30 31 33 36 38 40 42 43 V (KT) LGE mod 35 32 30 30 29 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 8 9 8 10 12 21 20 23 21 24 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 6 7 6 4 4 1 0 1 3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 182 206 225 234 247 273 242 258 265 270 266 298 291 SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 27.1 27.9 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 117 118 119 121 122 128 137 141 143 146 145 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 112 114 116 117 119 125 134 136 137 138 136 134 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 8 8 9 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 58 57 54 51 48 47 43 42 48 50 57 60 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 9 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 73 76 77 74 81 70 49 17 0 -28 -54 -78 -99 200 MB DIV -19 -20 -11 1 -10 -3 -6 3 30 1 -7 10 15 700-850 TADV 10 10 6 6 6 2 6 3 4 9 2 4 -1 LAND (KM) 2044 1945 1852 1769 1690 1539 1451 1251 1042 764 570 566 675 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.6 16.8 17.3 18.0 18.8 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.4 25.2 LONG(DEG W) 37.2 38.5 39.8 41.3 42.8 46.0 49.5 52.8 55.9 58.9 61.8 64.5 67.1 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 15 15 16 17 16 15 15 15 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 10 35 51 42 28 37 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 5. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/06/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.9 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/06/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)