* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/06/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 26 23 21 20 21 21 23 25 27 29 33 36 V (KT) LAND 30 26 23 21 20 21 21 23 25 27 29 33 36 V (KT) LGE mod 30 25 23 22 21 20 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 9 7 9 8 23 19 27 23 31 23 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 6 8 6 6 5 3 1 0 1 0 2 0 SHEAR DIR 210 215 230 236 235 254 254 270 272 276 283 301 299 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.5 26.5 26.8 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 116 118 119 121 121 125 134 140 143 145 147 144 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 111 114 115 118 119 123 132 137 137 137 137 134 132 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.6 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -53.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 13 700-500 MB RH 54 52 48 46 46 42 41 44 51 54 58 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 7 7 7 5 5 5 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 73 70 75 71 51 29 0 -15 -47 -73 -88 -113 200 MB DIV -29 -12 0 -8 -10 0 -9 11 12 3 -2 14 11 700-850 TADV 11 6 5 3 5 1 3 -2 5 5 3 1 -6 LAND (KM) 1964 1866 1776 1688 1599 1484 1332 1131 817 599 535 622 695 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.7 16.9 17.6 18.5 19.4 20.3 21.4 22.6 24.1 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.2 39.6 41.0 42.7 44.3 47.8 51.5 55.0 58.2 61.0 63.3 65.8 68.4 STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 15 16 17 18 18 16 15 13 13 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 2 28 42 48 26 47 30 32 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -9. -10. -10. -9. -8. -7. -4. -2. 0. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -10. -9. -9. -7. -5. -3. -1. 3. 6. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/06/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 59.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/06/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)