* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 67 70 75 81 80 79 76 71 66 63 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 67 70 75 61 38 38 35 30 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 65 69 73 80 67 39 44 51 59 42 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 11 9 13 12 9 13 13 17 12 15 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -4 -1 -2 0 -9 -2 0 0 2 2 SHEAR DIR 297 329 313 310 315 301 323 319 342 326 4 347 323 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 141 144 147 149 148 150 151 153 157 159 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 135 135 139 142 142 140 140 141 142 144 142 138 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.6 -52.2 -52.5 -52.7 -51.7 -52.1 -51.3 -51.8 -50.9 -51.9 -51.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 10 8 8 11 9 10 8 10 8 11 7 700-500 MB RH 73 73 75 74 75 76 72 74 72 75 76 75 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 14 14 16 16 17 16 14 12 8 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 64 49 47 40 28 29 23 16 4 29 48 52 57 200 MB DIV 40 56 57 38 30 62 66 64 24 60 62 52 55 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 -3 -6 0 -7 -7 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 338 243 169 147 144 152 -21 -61 77 122 22 -68 -83 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.8 18.3 18.8 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.3 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 80.1 81.1 82.1 83.1 84.1 86.3 88.4 90.3 92.2 94.1 95.9 96.9 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 8 7 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 92 71 68 69 69 67 63 28 31 35 38 44 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 20. 26. 25. 24. 21. 16. 12. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 73.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/06/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 5( 9) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 17( 17) 11( 26) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)