* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/06/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 29 31 32 32 34 37 40 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 28 28 29 29 31 32 32 34 37 40 V (KT) LGE mod 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 11 8 10 25 24 23 28 25 18 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 10 8 5 3 6 0 0 2 1 -1 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 214 231 235 239 260 236 270 270 271 266 294 291 327 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.6 27.2 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 117 118 120 121 122 130 140 142 144 147 144 143 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 114 117 119 121 129 139 139 139 139 132 128 127 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.6 -53.5 -53.6 -53.3 -53.7 -53.7 -54.1 -54.0 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 52 47 47 47 46 42 43 46 52 52 58 57 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 7 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 71 80 76 66 46 19 -6 -37 -69 -92 -110 -118 200 MB DIV -10 4 -13 -8 4 -10 -4 10 5 -13 0 -4 18 700-850 TADV 6 5 7 7 1 3 1 -4 6 -3 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1874 1780 1692 1591 1506 1413 1176 918 644 555 657 738 884 LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.4 16.5 16.7 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.8 21.1 22.7 24.4 26.0 27.6 LONG(DEG W) 39.5 41.0 42.4 44.2 45.9 49.7 53.6 57.1 60.3 63.1 65.5 67.6 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 15 17 17 19 18 17 16 15 13 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 8 39 54 42 50 36 30 25 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/06/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/06/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)