* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/06/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 68 72 80 83 83 84 78 72 68 66 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 68 72 80 53 37 42 36 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 62 66 70 78 55 37 46 54 53 36 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 10 11 9 11 9 17 14 19 19 17 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -4 -2 -1 0 0 -5 -2 -1 0 1 5 SHEAR DIR 324 306 316 320 336 306 330 322 336 7 12 357 355 SST (C) 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 140 142 144 147 150 149 150 152 151 152 157 162 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 136 138 141 143 141 142 142 140 140 144 148 146 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 8 8 11 9 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 700-500 MB RH 72 76 74 74 72 73 74 70 68 73 78 77 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 17 17 20 20 19 20 14 9 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 43 29 38 26 29 11 38 45 64 65 61 200 MB DIV 59 65 45 28 56 65 80 31 86 55 42 58 43 700-850 TADV 4 4 -1 -3 -2 0 -1 -14 -6 -4 -7 -2 1 LAND (KM) 250 182 140 117 144 76 -107 0 71 56 -21 -139 -233 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.5 16.9 17.2 17.9 18.5 18.9 19.1 19.1 19.0 19.0 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 81.1 82.1 83.1 84.1 85.1 87.1 89.2 91.3 93.2 94.8 96.2 97.5 98.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 72 70 68 67 67 69 0 14 27 34 36 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 2. 3. -3. -8. -12. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 17. 25. 28. 28. 29. 23. 17. 13. 11. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/06/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 68.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 18% is 5.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/06/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 7( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 12( 12) 44( 51) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)