* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/07/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 63 68 74 76 77 76 70 69 69 68 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 63 68 49 40 41 40 34 29 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 59 62 65 48 39 46 53 61 45 33 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 9 5 10 8 9 16 14 15 6 11 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 0 -2 4 -4 1 0 0 3 4 0 SHEAR DIR 298 304 308 318 288 343 345 327 336 351 345 310 315 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 143 146 152 158 157 157 159 158 159 162 163 166 171 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 141 147 153 151 149 149 147 146 147 148 153 160 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 -51.0 -51.6 -50.7 -51.5 -51.1 -52.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 8 11 11 9 12 8 11 9 11 6 9 700-500 MB RH 76 75 74 73 74 70 68 68 70 73 70 74 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 17 19 21 19 18 15 9 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 28 18 19 19 14 12 20 41 47 57 59 72 200 MB DIV 56 40 33 63 84 70 6 42 74 42 55 55 60 700-850 TADV 5 3 -1 -3 2 -1 -7 2 -11 -8 -3 0 0 LAND (KM) 204 178 198 235 102 -100 37 120 101 24 -51 -171 -208 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 19.0 19.5 19.6 19.5 19.5 19.6 19.4 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 82.1 83.2 84.2 85.4 86.6 88.8 91.0 93.0 94.7 96.0 96.9 98.1 99.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 9 7 5 5 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 63 59 64 72 79 0 28 34 40 42 49 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 6. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 1. 0. -3. -9. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 19. 21. 22. 21. 15. 14. 14. 13. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/07/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 67.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 58.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/07/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)