* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 60 65 70 73 74 73 67 64 64 68 69 V (KT) LAND 55 57 60 65 56 36 39 39 32 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 56 59 62 55 36 41 47 53 44 32 28 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 3 5 7 10 18 17 17 14 7 15 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 2 2 4 0 -3 0 2 0 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 307 308 288 290 315 359 342 7 360 24 328 322 322 SST (C) 28.7 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 147 154 158 158 157 159 158 159 162 164 164 165 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 149 152 152 149 150 148 147 149 149 148 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.9 -51.1 -51.1 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 10 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 73 74 73 72 71 71 70 71 73 74 72 72 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 21 22 21 20 18 11 7 4 9 10 850 MB ENV VOR 27 15 18 23 16 15 10 35 41 48 47 47 36 200 MB DIV 50 43 81 96 89 0 -3 70 47 37 70 49 24 700-850 TADV 7 0 -3 -1 0 -4 -3 -9 -4 0 4 2 1 LAND (KM) 192 205 203 72 -56 -59 111 148 66 -51 -159 -255 -241 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.7 18.1 18.5 18.8 19.3 19.6 19.7 19.6 19.6 19.6 19.5 19.3 LONG(DEG W) 83.3 84.5 85.7 86.9 88.1 90.1 92.3 94.1 95.6 96.9 98.1 99.1 100.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 61 68 72 77 75 21 35 39 42 49 0 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -8. -12. -15. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 19. 18. 12. 9. 9. 13. 14. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 70.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/07/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)