* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072012 08/07/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 39 44 48 55 60 63 61 59 56 52 47 V (KT) LAND 30 34 39 44 48 55 60 63 61 59 56 52 47 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 54 56 56 54 52 49 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 10 9 5 7 2 3 6 6 8 15 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 -4 -2 -2 -3 -2 0 0 2 SHEAR DIR 48 69 74 87 82 85 77 63 101 88 114 68 110 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.1 27.2 26.3 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 150 145 136 125 117 114 111 108 106 105 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 -52.3 -52.1 -51.8 -51.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 5 4 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 72 73 71 74 71 69 66 65 57 55 53 48 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 8 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 28 28 30 30 29 23 20 22 29 38 50 44 55 200 MB DIV 58 48 46 68 69 11 51 15 17 18 22 -5 14 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 893 952 971 965 971 1028 1116 1170 1220 1251 1307 1357 1414 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 111.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 41 27 30 29 19 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 14. 18. 25. 30. 33. 31. 29. 26. 22. 17. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 SEVEN 08/07/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.0 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)