* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 62 66 68 70 72 70 64 66 69 71 75 V (KT) LAND 55 58 62 58 46 39 42 40 30 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 60 63 46 39 45 51 46 33 29 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 2 7 10 11 14 12 14 16 6 3 6 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 1 1 5 5 -6 1 4 -1 5 10 0 3 SHEAR DIR 310 332 288 298 331 327 327 341 358 13 327 287 262 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.9 30.1 30.2 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 157 157 157 158 158 159 165 166 170 168 167 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 150 151 150 149 147 148 153 154 156 154 152 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -50.6 -51.4 -51.3 -52.2 -51.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 10 10 11 8 11 8 10 6 9 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 74 72 70 71 70 71 71 71 73 76 79 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 21 22 21 19 20 16 7 7 7 9 14 850 MB ENV VOR 17 20 19 15 16 14 24 42 57 60 75 73 71 200 MB DIV 44 84 88 58 49 -16 42 78 44 78 62 46 53 700-850 TADV -3 2 3 2 -3 -6 -6 -7 -6 0 6 0 1 LAND (KM) 217 229 114 -15 -107 34 79 66 -37 -179 -215 -144 -117 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.2 19.2 19.2 19.1 18.7 18.5 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 84.4 85.5 86.5 87.7 88.9 91.2 93.1 94.8 96.5 98.0 99.3 100.4 100.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 12 12 10 9 8 8 7 6 3 1 HEAT CONTENT 70 74 78 62 0 28 34 44 43 0 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 1. -4. -12. -13. -13. -11. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 15. 9. 11. 14. 16. 20. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 56.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 40% is 3.1 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/07/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)