* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 34 33 33 35 38 43 46 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 34 34 33 33 35 38 43 46 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 27 27 26 26 25 27 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 16 23 23 30 32 29 25 21 25 20 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 3 2 -1 0 0 3 4 1 0 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 220 212 228 257 277 283 306 315 342 356 24 24 13 SST (C) 26.8 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.6 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 131 134 136 141 146 148 151 151 152 152 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 124 125 129 131 133 136 135 133 134 135 136 137 136 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -53.8 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.1 -53.9 -53.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 12 13 12 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 43 42 41 41 42 47 52 51 56 54 56 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 50 44 28 12 -10 -55 -99 -108 -117 -117 -108 -114 200 MB DIV 4 7 -10 -10 -3 15 -4 -37 -6 -21 -18 -23 -19 700-850 TADV 4 0 6 10 8 11 17 16 13 7 1 0 -7 LAND (KM) 1475 1445 1427 1331 1253 1030 848 789 741 673 635 553 486 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.5 17.9 18.6 19.2 20.7 22.2 23.3 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.2 24.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.7 48.3 49.9 51.6 53.2 56.2 58.7 60.3 61.8 63.5 65.5 67.6 69.9 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 17 17 16 15 11 8 8 8 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 12 11 25 36 50 23 23 34 39 38 34 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 9. 8. 8. 10. 13. 18. 21. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 61.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/07/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)