* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN EP072012 08/07/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 60 59 59 57 51 50 43 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 42 46 54 60 59 59 57 51 50 43 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 46 48 48 46 44 43 40 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 7 8 2 4 6 9 5 4 7 13 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -3 0 0 -1 -6 -3 -1 0 -1 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 67 51 57 44 41 28 6 14 18 101 105 85 98 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.5 28.2 27.7 26.7 25.9 25.6 25.5 25.4 25.1 25.2 25.3 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 149 146 141 130 121 116 114 114 110 111 112 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.8 -52.2 -52.4 -52.9 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.4 -51.3 -50.7 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 71 70 74 70 69 68 65 63 59 58 54 54 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 11 10 10 9 12 13 12 13 13 11 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 22 26 25 22 9 11 5 7 4 13 15 14 -1 200 MB DIV 43 40 65 69 34 24 15 11 2 18 7 -8 0 700-850 TADV -3 -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -3 0 LAND (KM) 932 941 943 953 976 1041 1129 1192 1236 1266 1313 1305 1282 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.9 17.1 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.1 17.0 LONG(DEG W) 112.2 113.1 114.0 115.0 115.9 117.7 119.4 120.3 120.8 121.2 121.9 121.8 121.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 10 10 10 9 6 3 2 3 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 27 29 27 18 17 12 2 1 3 2 0 0 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 17. 18. 19. 18. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 7. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 6. 5. 6. 6. 3. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 16. 24. 30. 29. 29. 27. 21. 20. 13. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 SEVEN 08/07/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.4 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 3.0 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)