* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 85 88 88 88 82 78 77 77 76 74 V (KT) LAND 70 76 67 51 40 42 42 36 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 77 70 52 41 46 54 63 43 32 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 8 7 10 13 12 10 11 10 10 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 5 6 1 -2 0 2 3 3 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 293 266 289 316 332 327 23 6 30 20 355 353 351 SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.0 30.2 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 155 157 159 158 160 163 166 169 171 169 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 151 147 149 150 148 149 150 154 159 163 157 153 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.4 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -51.7 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 9 10 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 74 73 71 71 73 71 73 74 74 73 75 81 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 21 23 23 22 20 19 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 12 10 18 18 9 45 59 72 80 87 92 82 200 MB DIV 86 78 89 68 39 3 74 72 63 80 70 35 43 700-850 TADV 0 7 9 -3 -6 -2 -8 -5 -6 -7 1 -4 1 LAND (KM) 217 91 -34 -136 -59 88 107 25 -97 -257 -149 -77 -32 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.9 19.3 19.3 19.3 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.1 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 85.5 86.7 87.8 89.0 90.1 92.2 94.2 95.8 97.1 98.8 100.9 102.4 102.9 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 9 9 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 84 87 79 0 21 33 42 45 0 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -1. -9. -12. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 15. 18. 18. 18. 12. 8. 7. 7. 6. 4. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 54.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 87.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 30% is 6.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 24% is 7.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/07/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 63 0( 63) 0( 63) 0( 63) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)