* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 33 32 32 33 36 40 43 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 29 30 33 33 32 32 33 36 40 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 26 25 25 25 25 26 29 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 18 26 27 24 33 31 25 23 25 25 22 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 0 -2 -1 -4 0 3 2 0 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 232 242 264 278 275 288 304 319 349 5 19 22 16 SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.0 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 131 134 138 139 145 148 151 151 151 151 151 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 131 134 134 137 135 135 133 133 133 132 133 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 40 39 41 42 43 48 50 50 52 53 55 56 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 5 3 2 1 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 41 27 10 -3 -41 -82 -115 -121 -122 -114 -105 -77 200 MB DIV 9 -14 -12 -1 22 6 3 -24 -13 -24 0 -22 6 700-850 TADV -2 11 12 12 3 10 15 18 11 8 2 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 1451 1420 1314 1256 1142 916 834 807 784 749 723 673 664 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.7 19.5 20.2 21.9 23.3 24.3 24.9 25.1 25.3 25.5 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.5 50.2 51.9 53.5 55.0 57.8 59.7 61.3 62.8 64.5 66.3 68.0 69.8 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 16 16 13 10 8 8 8 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 11 13 28 35 40 28 21 32 32 36 32 34 34 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 688 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. -1. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 8. 7. 7. 8. 11. 15. 18. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/07/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)