* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/07/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 44 49 52 57 62 64 64 61 58 52 47 40 V (KT) LAND 40 44 49 52 57 62 64 64 61 58 52 47 40 V (KT) LGE mod 40 45 49 53 56 59 58 55 52 49 46 43 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 6 5 6 9 5 8 9 20 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -3 -4 -2 -2 -4 -3 -2 -1 -3 -2 0 SHEAR DIR 53 59 75 94 33 32 36 34 28 94 91 106 100 SST (C) 28.7 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.1 26.2 25.6 25.3 25.2 25.1 25.1 25.3 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 144 140 134 124 117 113 111 109 109 112 115 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.3 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -52.0 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 70 72 71 71 67 65 65 59 57 57 54 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 13 13 14 15 14 14 13 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 35 31 27 18 19 14 17 21 22 23 10 11 9 200 MB DIV 42 62 75 39 24 26 6 5 5 7 -26 10 2 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 -1 -3 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -4 -1 1 LAND (KM) 958 960 974 999 1035 1098 1177 1228 1251 1266 1290 1312 1328 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.3 15.7 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.3 17.2 16.9 16.6 LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.4 115.3 116.3 117.2 118.8 120.1 120.9 121.3 121.5 121.7 121.7 121.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 3 1 1 1 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 31 25 18 18 17 7 1 0 0 0 0 1 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 17. 22. 24. 24. 21. 18. 12. 7. 0. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/07/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 21.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)