* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 82 88 92 93 92 87 81 80 78 78 77 76 V (KT) LAND 75 60 46 44 45 44 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 75 63 47 39 48 58 69 51 34 29 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 10 12 17 11 13 6 9 11 15 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 5 8 0 -6 -3 3 2 6 5 0 2 4 SHEAR DIR 265 306 20 337 322 359 26 23 23 348 347 332 330 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.0 30.1 30.2 30.2 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 156 157 159 159 158 158 161 167 168 169 168 169 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 150 152 151 149 148 149 154 155 155 155 155 156 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.4 -50.3 -51.4 -51.0 -52.1 -51.5 -52.2 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 10 10 7 11 8 9 6 9 7 11 700-500 MB RH 73 71 71 70 72 72 70 71 74 77 82 78 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 22 24 23 23 20 20 14 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 27 18 13 23 50 73 84 89 93 75 72 200 MB DIV 81 108 87 49 -19 6 48 30 86 64 39 24 20 700-850 TADV 9 8 -2 -7 -10 -12 -3 -9 -4 3 -2 -1 -10 LAND (KM) 47 -72 -122 -2 76 119 55 -82 -230 -199 -152 -118 -88 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.0 19.2 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.3 19.2 19.0 18.8 18.8 18.9 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 87.1 88.3 89.5 90.7 91.8 93.8 95.5 97.0 98.5 99.9 100.7 101.4 102.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 8 7 7 5 4 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 81 67 21 4 32 38 43 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 5. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -8. -14. -16. -16. -16. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 17. 18. 17. 12. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 41.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 55% is 4.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 54% is 6.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 40% is 8.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 34% is 10.0 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/08/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 0( 5) 0( 5) 0( 5) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 45 0( 45) 0( 45) 0( 45) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)