* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/08/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 68 72 74 71 67 61 54 44 34 24 V (KT) LAND 50 57 64 68 72 74 71 67 61 54 44 34 24 V (KT) LGE mod 50 58 65 69 72 70 64 58 52 47 43 38 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 6 8 10 11 4 5 9 9 24 25 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 -1 0 -1 -2 -2 -1 0 -3 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 51 54 56 14 15 21 16 73 115 112 108 113 110 SST (C) 28.3 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.7 26.0 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 140 135 130 122 116 112 110 107 104 103 105 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.0 -51.5 -51.8 -51.2 -51.6 -51.3 -51.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 69 71 67 67 63 63 60 60 57 54 51 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 17 15 18 18 17 16 17 16 13 11 10 850 MB ENV VOR 26 21 14 14 11 3 5 3 8 0 1 0 20 200 MB DIV 61 70 45 44 41 12 19 7 12 -6 4 22 20 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 -2 -3 -1 -2 1 3 LAND (KM) 982 1000 1027 1059 1096 1146 1192 1220 1235 1237 1231 1256 1301 LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.1 17.3 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.0 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 114.6 115.5 116.4 117.2 118.0 119.4 120.3 120.9 121.2 121.5 121.7 122.0 122.3 STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 8 8 6 3 3 2 2 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 24 18 16 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 445 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 18. 22. 24. 21. 17. 12. 4. -6. -16. -26. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/08/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 28% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 23% is 4.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 3.9%)