* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 73 78 80 82 84 78 75 73 72 74 76 78 V (KT) LAND 70 51 42 49 51 53 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 70 51 41 47 51 60 52 35 29 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 5 10 7 10 11 17 10 11 14 7 7 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 -1 0 0 0 0 5 4 0 4 5 0 SHEAR DIR 324 332 329 324 306 37 18 33 360 7 357 338 323 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 30.0 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 159 159 158 160 165 168 169 168 167 168 168 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 152 151 149 149 153 154 157 156 153 156 157 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.9 -51.3 -51.0 -51.2 -50.7 -50.9 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 9 10 10 9 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 73 71 72 72 71 71 73 78 82 85 84 83 84 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 21 22 19 19 18 11 7 4 3 3 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 18 23 22 12 3 45 64 89 91 101 91 87 87 200 MB DIV 112 102 75 14 -16 49 30 80 100 60 49 49 49 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -9 -5 -9 -1 -5 5 5 0 -4 -10 LAND (KM) -56 -129 -9 66 88 52 -63 -192 -198 -134 -121 -117 -60 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.0 19.1 19.2 19.3 19.1 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.2 18.2 18.4 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.3 89.5 90.7 91.9 93.0 94.9 96.6 97.9 99.0 100.0 100.3 100.7 101.6 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 11 10 9 7 6 5 3 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 67 21 0 31 33 40 41 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 621 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -10. -14. -18. -19. -19. -18. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 10. 12. 14. 8. 5. 3. 2. 4. 6. 8. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 30.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.4 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 31% is 3.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 22% is 4.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 20% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/08/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)