* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 36 37 38 39 44 49 53 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 31 35 36 37 38 39 44 49 53 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 29 32 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 25 23 27 33 24 29 26 27 25 19 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 -2 1 2 3 -1 0 -1 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 268 275 278 274 284 316 326 352 6 25 22 15 348 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 138 139 140 141 144 147 150 150 150 150 149 148 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 135 135 135 136 137 136 136 135 134 131 129 129 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.4 -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.1 -54.0 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.6 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 42 43 44 44 46 48 48 51 52 51 55 57 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 16 0 -15 -27 -69 -100 -114 -124 -125 -115 -93 -80 200 MB DIV -17 -7 24 -3 7 0 -35 -2 -30 4 -5 3 -14 700-850 TADV 10 8 1 1 8 10 11 9 4 1 3 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1175 1110 1015 883 763 624 561 547 541 521 556 581 542 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.9 22.7 23.3 23.7 24.3 24.8 25.2 25.4 LONG(DEG W) 53.1 54.6 56.1 57.5 58.8 61.1 63.0 64.8 66.9 68.9 70.7 72.1 73.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 15 15 14 13 11 9 10 9 9 8 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 34 43 51 41 26 48 38 29 39 35 34 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 786 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -7. -11. -15. -16. -16. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 19. 24. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 40.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/08/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)