* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/08/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 66 70 73 75 72 71 65 57 47 37 25 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 66 70 73 75 72 71 65 57 47 37 25 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 72 74 74 70 63 57 51 45 39 33 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 7 10 2 2 6 15 20 26 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 0 0 0 -3 0 -1 -2 5 0 SHEAR DIR 35 49 20 9 22 55 40 69 120 108 118 102 109 SST (C) 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.8 24.6 24.5 24.2 24.0 23.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 140 135 131 126 119 112 107 104 103 100 98 96 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -51.6 -51.1 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 71 74 69 68 64 64 63 59 56 52 52 49 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 16 18 16 17 16 16 14 13 11 9 850 MB ENV VOR 19 12 14 9 10 13 22 19 16 3 10 9 33 200 MB DIV 64 41 53 66 31 7 18 4 -6 0 10 20 25 700-850 TADV -4 -3 -3 -3 -3 -1 -2 -1 -2 -2 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 1010 1039 1075 1109 1128 1142 1166 1167 1176 1185 1205 1209 1200 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.2 18.3 18.5 18.7 19.1 LONG(DEG W) 115.6 116.5 117.3 118.0 118.7 119.6 120.5 120.9 121.2 121.4 121.8 122.0 122.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 1 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 16 15 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. 0. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 4. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 4. 3. 3. 0. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 10. 13. 15. 12. 11. 5. -3. -13. -23. -35. -46. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/08/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.2 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)