* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 47 48 50 50 51 55 59 64 68 72 72 V (KT) LAND 50 41 45 46 48 40 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 41 43 43 45 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 6 9 10 9 13 8 11 12 12 10 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 0 -3 -5 -2 0 0 2 3 2 4 4 3 SHEAR DIR 327 328 309 325 356 15 31 27 358 343 329 266 226 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 159 158 158 163 170 168 168 167 167 168 169 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 154 150 149 149 153 159 157 156 154 151 150 152 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -51.2 -51.6 -51.8 -50.9 -51.7 -51.1 -52.3 -51.5 -52.3 -51.8 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 9 7 12 8 11 8 10 8 11 8 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 71 73 73 75 76 74 78 77 74 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 20 18 17 18 10 6 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 19 9 9 28 56 84 82 86 90 78 64 68 200 MB DIV 80 66 43 7 11 64 45 74 40 39 17 28 32 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -7 -7 -9 -10 -7 0 0 0 0 0 3 LAND (KM) -104 -19 33 50 75 -30 -209 -178 -162 -135 -168 -207 -172 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.7 18.4 18.2 18.3 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 89.8 91.0 92.2 93.2 94.2 96.1 97.9 99.0 99.6 100.4 100.3 100.4 101.3 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 9 7 4 3 2 2 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 28 1 29 26 34 36 0 64 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. -9. -6. -2. 1. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -9. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -3. -2. 0. 0. 1. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 22. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 23.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/08/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)