* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062012 08/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 39 40 42 45 49 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 33 36 38 39 40 42 45 49 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 27 27 28 28 29 31 35 39 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 20 24 28 26 22 29 23 27 23 19 18 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 -1 0 3 0 1 -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 279 274 273 281 295 305 332 349 6 16 7 8 347 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.9 29.0 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 138 140 143 144 146 150 150 150 150 150 149 150 152 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 135 137 137 138 138 135 136 136 134 132 131 131 200 MB T (C) -54.6 -54.5 -54.2 -54.1 -54.2 -54.1 -54.1 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.1 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 12 11 700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 45 48 47 50 50 51 55 59 58 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 3 3 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 -2 -14 -30 -48 -83 -105 -118 -130 -126 -110 -82 -68 200 MB DIV -10 20 0 -6 7 -17 -24 -3 -25 -12 14 2 -10 700-850 TADV 7 1 2 9 12 9 12 5 1 2 -2 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1123 1022 883 772 679 592 568 577 526 559 596 567 505 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.5 23.3 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.4 25.8 26.1 LONG(DEG W) 54.6 56.1 57.5 58.8 60.1 62.2 64.1 66.1 68.3 70.4 72.2 73.7 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 14 14 13 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 45 52 38 27 38 44 30 35 35 32 43 52 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 17. 20. 24. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062012 FLORENCE 08/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.6 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 39.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062012 FLORENCE 08/08/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)