* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/08/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 68 71 72 69 65 59 45 36 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 65 68 71 72 69 65 59 45 36 24 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 64 66 67 66 62 56 51 45 40 34 29 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 13 14 5 3 2 6 12 24 21 24 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 -2 1 0 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -1 0 3 SHEAR DIR 47 24 29 24 24 300 21 123 131 128 123 117 90 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.0 25.4 24.8 24.4 24.0 23.7 23.4 23.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 139 135 130 126 122 115 108 103 99 96 92 90 88 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -50.7 -50.9 -50.6 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 73 70 68 64 64 63 59 56 52 52 51 52 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 21 21 19 19 18 14 15 13 10 9 850 MB ENV VOR 14 21 14 11 12 13 16 20 10 7 4 19 35 200 MB DIV 51 94 65 14 -10 41 2 4 -19 6 12 27 3 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -4 -4 -4 0 0 -1 -3 -4 -2 1 2 LAND (KM) 1049 1075 1105 1112 1124 1145 1159 1170 1176 1177 1167 1171 1174 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.6 19.8 20.0 LONG(DEG W) 116.6 117.3 118.0 118.6 119.2 120.1 120.8 121.3 121.7 122.0 122.2 122.5 122.8 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 7 6 6 5 3 3 3 2 2 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 15 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -3. -7. -11. -13. -16. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 1. 2. 1. -4. -4. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 8. 11. 12. 9. 5. -1. -15. -24. -36. -48. -55. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/08/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)