* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 35 33 33 34 35 40 46 52 58 65 71 75 V (KT) LAND 40 39 37 37 34 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 34 33 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 8 4 3 10 6 8 11 16 16 11 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 -1 -2 0 0 2 4 6 7 2 2 9 N/A SHEAR DIR 298 318 315 11 42 15 53 10 360 347 353 324 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 159 158 158 161 167 170 169 168 169 169 169 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 153 150 148 151 156 161 160 156 158 156 153 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -51.8 -51.9 -51.8 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 9 7 9 10 10 9 9 8 9 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 74 72 75 73 73 76 78 75 77 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 20 18 17 17 15 8 5 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 13 28 38 57 75 81 82 88 96 113 N/A 200 MB DIV 58 33 12 3 35 52 78 75 71 43 31 32 N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -9 -9 -9 -6 -6 -6 -3 2 -3 -2 -13 N/A LAND (KM) -29 11 22 44 -9 -109 -214 -143 -111 -83 -33 -36 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.7 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.3 18.3 18.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.9 92.2 93.4 94.3 95.2 96.8 98.4 99.8 100.5 101.1 102.2 103.0 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 10 9 8 8 7 5 3 4 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 21 21 31 19 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 523 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 11. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE -7. -12. -15. -17. -17. -16. -15. -12. -7. -3. 1. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -15. -18. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -7. -6. -5. 0. 6. 12. 18. 25. 31. 35. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -30.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.5 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 25.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/08/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)