* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/08/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 60 59 59 56 53 45 35 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 60 60 59 59 56 53 45 35 27 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 60 59 58 56 51 46 42 37 32 27 23 19 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 15 13 10 6 5 8 11 19 20 19 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -1 -2 -2 0 -3 0 -2 -3 2 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 26 19 27 32 22 17 124 162 124 121 116 118 119 SST (C) 27.2 26.8 26.5 26.1 25.8 25.2 24.6 24.1 23.7 23.4 23.3 23.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 130 127 122 119 113 106 100 96 92 91 89 86 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -52.0 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.1 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.7 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 69 67 63 62 63 61 58 52 49 50 50 50 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 19 19 19 20 19 19 18 15 14 12 10 8 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 6 3 10 10 15 14 3 8 8 23 75 200 MB DIV 86 95 28 12 19 21 8 1 -13 -5 5 16 29 700-850 TADV -4 -6 -4 -4 -2 0 -2 0 -1 -3 0 2 8 LAND (KM) 1098 1124 1137 1138 1142 1159 1153 1136 1121 1120 1151 1140 1120 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.4 19.7 19.7 20.0 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.1 118.7 119.2 119.6 120.4 121.0 121.3 121.5 121.7 122.1 122.3 122.5 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 17 15 6 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -8. -13. -15. -18. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 2. -2. -2. -6. -8. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -1. -4. -7. -15. -25. -33. -43. -53. -61. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/08/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 66.8 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times the sample mean( 3.9%)