* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 63 65 66 70 75 78 81 83 86 87 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 63 49 34 29 27 27 27 31 35 35 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 62 67 54 36 29 28 27 27 33 41 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 11 7 5 11 12 8 10 7 9 5 2 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -2 0 -1 1 1 2 4 5 4 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 304 310 5 31 352 39 30 24 17 343 340 349 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 159 158 159 161 167 170 169 168 169 169 168 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 150 148 148 150 156 163 163 161 161 160 155 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.8 -52.2 -52.1 -51.3 -52.0 -51.2 -52.1 -51.5 -52.6 -51.8 -52.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 8 10 11 8 9 6 9 7 11 7 N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 74 76 73 73 75 76 76 81 80 82 82 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 14 12 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 23 37 49 75 68 81 72 82 83 71 N/A 200 MB DIV 28 25 10 34 60 67 51 55 48 53 45 44 N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -9 -9 -4 -6 -3 -1 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 N/A LAND (KM) 22 1 6 5 -53 -142 -167 -90 -53 -27 43 77 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.6 18.4 18.3 18.1 17.8 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.3 17.3 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.5 92.6 93.6 94.4 95.1 96.6 98.1 99.4 100.0 100.6 101.7 102.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 7 7 7 7 4 3 4 4 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 24 19 26 20 21 0 62 70 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 77.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -10. -12. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 31. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 94.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.2 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 22.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/09/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)