* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/09/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 70 69 67 59 47 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 70 69 67 59 47 36 23 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 65 63 56 50 45 39 33 27 22 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 13 6 1 5 7 9 24 22 22 19 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 0 2 -2 0 -2 -5 2 2 1 4 SHEAR DIR 12 36 31 10 298 42 136 121 122 116 119 101 113 SST (C) 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.8 25.4 24.8 24.3 23.8 23.5 23.3 23.2 22.9 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 131 127 124 120 115 108 103 97 93 91 90 87 85 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -51.7 -52.2 -51.3 -51.1 -50.6 -50.8 -50.7 -51.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 68 67 68 65 62 58 55 54 54 54 53 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 19 19 19 20 18 15 14 12 10 9 8 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 0 10 18 21 28 25 27 21 18 26 46 200 MB DIV 84 35 13 30 32 2 9 -27 11 1 7 -8 -11 700-850 TADV -6 -2 -4 -2 1 -4 -2 -2 -5 -2 3 3 9 LAND (KM) 1143 1155 1166 1169 1175 1182 1180 1166 1159 1166 1171 1165 1154 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.3 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.9 18.5 19.1 19.5 19.7 19.8 20.1 20.5 LONG(DEG W) 118.1 118.7 119.3 119.8 120.3 121.0 121.5 121.8 122.0 122.3 122.5 122.8 123.1 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 2 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 10 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -14. -19. -22. -24. -27. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 3. -2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -6. -18. -29. -42. -54. -63. -70. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/09/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)