* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 70 73 75 79 83 88 90 92 94 95 94 V (KT) LAND 60 65 58 48 39 31 28 27 33 34 36 37 37 V (KT) LGE mod 60 67 64 52 41 31 28 27 38 48 59 72 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 6 6 8 13 12 9 12 13 8 5 15 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -1 -1 0 2 5 3 2 7 1 4 N/A SHEAR DIR 304 342 56 340 26 47 30 5 11 22 107 107 N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.3 30.5 30.5 30.4 30.3 30.2 30.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 160 163 166 170 170 169 168 169 169 166 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 149 149 152 155 164 168 163 158 159 158 152 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -50.9 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.4 -52.3 -51.6 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 8 11 13 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 74 77 72 71 73 75 78 82 83 83 84 85 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 16 12 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 29 49 59 72 77 93 86 97 92 88 76 N/A 200 MB DIV 19 27 61 88 70 72 76 77 55 70 80 89 N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -10 -7 -5 -9 -4 0 3 -6 -1 -4 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 36 44 -13 -64 -118 -175 -84 -1 25 67 133 150 N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.8 18.7 18.5 18.3 18.0 17.7 17.4 17.1 17.0 16.9 16.8 16.7 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.1 94.1 95.0 95.8 96.5 97.9 99.3 100.5 100.9 101.5 102.5 103.2 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 7 6 4 2 4 4 3 N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 33 9 32 0 61 72 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 13. 15. 19. 23. 28. 30. 32. 34. 35. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.5 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 53.0 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.1 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/09/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)