* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/09/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 71 72 71 68 65 55 41 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 71 72 71 68 65 55 41 28 16 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 72 72 69 66 57 50 43 36 29 23 18 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 16 10 5 4 4 13 13 20 20 13 17 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -1 1 0 0 -2 3 -1 4 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 34 39 11 19 6 59 141 125 123 115 104 99 128 SST (C) 26.7 26.4 26.0 25.6 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.2 22.8 22.7 22.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 121 117 114 108 102 97 93 91 86 85 88 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -51.5 -50.9 -50.3 -50.7 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 65 66 66 63 62 57 51 52 51 52 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 19 18 17 19 17 14 12 10 8 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR -9 -6 0 4 7 24 27 31 34 21 26 29 37 200 MB DIV 46 29 48 46 23 8 0 7 15 14 4 23 -7 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -2 0 0 -4 0 -2 -3 0 4 11 14 LAND (KM) 1156 1157 1161 1151 1144 1144 1149 1142 1126 1113 1104 1140 1208 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.2 17.6 18.1 18.7 19.2 19.6 20.0 20.5 20.5 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.4 119.0 119.5 119.9 120.2 120.7 121.3 121.6 121.7 121.9 122.4 122.9 123.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 3 4 2 2 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -12. -18. -23. -27. -30. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. -2. -5. -15. -29. -42. -54. -65. -74. -80. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/09/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 75.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.9%)