* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 63 66 70 75 79 83 87 90 91 V (KT) LAND 55 47 39 34 31 28 27 27 27 33 37 40 41 V (KT) LGE mod 55 48 40 34 31 28 27 27 27 35 45 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 12 11 15 12 12 11 11 4 3 2 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -1 0 3 3 3 0 6 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 342 24 13 23 33 32 21 6 328 43 83 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.6 30.6 30.5 30.4 30.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 160 163 166 170 169 168 168 169 169 169 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 151 154 156 161 166 165 163 164 163 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.4 -51.0 -51.5 -51.8 -50.9 -52.3 -51.7 -52.8 -51.9 -52.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 12 10 9 9 6 9 7 10 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 73 71 72 72 77 80 83 83 83 84 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 19 18 12 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 54 61 71 78 77 90 80 86 74 75 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 67 87 48 53 95 72 67 55 53 65 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -7 -5 -5 -3 -1 4 -2 1 -3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 0 -26 -107 -150 -171 -116 -38 -30 -14 45 111 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.1 17.8 17.6 17.4 17.2 16.9 17.0 17.1 17.0 16.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.8 94.7 95.6 96.3 97.0 98.1 99.2 99.6 100.2 101.3 102.2 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 6 5 3 2 4 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 22 0 0 61 65 74 75 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 14. 15. 16. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -15. -14. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 8. 11. 15. 20. 24. 28. 32. 35. 36. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.8 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.4 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/09/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)