* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/09/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 60 58 51 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 60 58 51 40 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 64 62 60 57 50 44 37 31 25 20 16 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 14 10 3 4 10 10 21 15 15 11 9 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -2 -1 0 -3 -3 1 -4 1 1 3 2 1 SHEAR DIR 26 16 16 24 158 144 119 129 120 114 93 140 156 SST (C) 26.4 26.1 25.8 25.4 25.1 24.4 23.8 23.4 23.0 22.7 22.4 22.3 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 125 122 119 115 112 104 97 93 89 86 83 82 81 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -51.2 -51.0 -50.4 -50.5 -50.5 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 3 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 63 63 57 53 53 53 52 52 50 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 19 18 18 18 15 13 11 9 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR -4 9 12 12 17 37 43 46 31 36 31 43 39 200 MB DIV 40 60 29 0 6 14 -8 16 -10 4 -14 -2 -23 700-850 TADV -3 -4 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -5 2 2 10 11 LAND (KM) 1119 1114 1112 1107 1105 1092 1078 1082 1066 1081 1122 1183 1253 LAT (DEG N) 16.7 17.0 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.7 19.4 19.9 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.0 20.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.1 119.4 119.8 120.1 120.6 121.0 121.4 121.7 122.3 123.2 124.0 124.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -17. -22. -25. -28. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -7. -14. -25. -38. -51. -60. -69. -75. -78. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/09/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 76.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.8 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.0 times the sample mean( 3.9%)