* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/09/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 44 46 48 55 60 62 65 67 68 73 76 V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 30 29 34 39 41 44 46 46 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 33 30 29 33 41 48 53 55 56 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 8 13 11 13 10 23 30 26 30 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 3 2 9 3 8 2 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 4 11 32 42 71 59 59 63 62 64 69 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.5 30.4 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 168 172 172 172 166 162 160 157 154 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 149 151 160 170 172 172 158 152 151 149 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.0 -51.7 -52.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.3 -52.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 10 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 73 75 75 75 77 82 86 86 85 86 82 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 11 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 73 82 94 91 108 81 62 57 53 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 93 95 71 61 72 97 78 71 70 101 91 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -5 -5 -2 -3 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -15 -82 -129 -183 -110 59 215 322 420 532 636 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.6 17.4 16.8 16.1 15.2 14.4 13.7 12.9 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.5 96.3 97.5 98.7 101.2 103.2 103.6 104.0 105.0 105.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 12 12 11 7 5 5 6 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 0 0 60 72 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 89.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 19. 21. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. -1. -4. -8. -13. -14. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 19. 21. 23. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 3. 10. 15. 17. 20. 22. 23. 28. 31. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/09/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 38% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 18% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/09/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)