* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/09/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 57 53 50 48 41 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 57 53 50 48 41 31 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 56 53 50 48 43 38 32 26 21 17 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 5 3 2 4 8 9 21 11 14 11 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 0 0 -3 -2 0 2 -5 1 0 5 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 10 30 84 140 102 181 129 146 120 107 97 101 127 SST (C) 26.1 25.8 25.6 25.2 24.8 24.1 23.4 22.8 22.4 22.3 22.5 22.4 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 122 118 117 113 109 101 94 88 83 82 85 84 82 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -51.8 -51.4 -50.5 -50.6 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 65 65 64 59 56 50 49 50 50 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 14 13 14 13 10 10 8 6 5 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 7 9 10 17 34 42 54 51 55 49 53 48 200 MB DIV 38 34 14 16 -2 5 27 19 1 -5 -1 3 -24 700-850 TADV -5 -1 -2 -2 -4 -1 -4 -2 1 0 4 4 3 LAND (KM) 1111 1106 1102 1083 1067 1072 1088 1077 1077 1129 1236 1329 1447 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.5 18.0 18.4 19.1 19.8 20.5 21.1 21.1 20.6 20.4 20.1 LONG(DEG W) 119.0 119.3 119.5 119.8 120.0 120.7 121.4 122.0 122.7 123.4 124.3 125.3 126.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 610 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -10. -15. -21. -23. -25. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -7. -7. -10. -12. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -12. -19. -29. -39. -50. -60. -68. -72. -73. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/09/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 67.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)