* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ERNESTO AL052012 08/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 41 43 46 54 59 64 67 72 76 82 85 V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 28 38 44 48 52 57 61 66 70 V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 31 29 28 36 42 48 54 60 64 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 13 14 13 15 20 19 18 21 33 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 3 1 8 9 8 10 5 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 39 58 82 95 65 61 39 37 52 68 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 30.1 30.3 30.5 30.4 30.1 29.9 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 172 172 173 172 172 166 161 163 162 159 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 165 172 173 172 166 153 143 149 150 147 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.7 -52.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.9 -51.0 -51.7 -50.7 -52.1 -51.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 8 9 10 7 10 6 10 7 7 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 73 75 78 81 78 80 81 80 82 83 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 84 93 88 99 97 74 75 98 92 109 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 65 62 74 106 95 80 53 52 83 77 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -8 -4 -1 0 -1 -1 -1 -6 -10 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -88 -168 -157 -82 -8 63 216 226 235 342 430 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.1 17.9 17.6 17.5 17.3 17.5 17.3 17.2 17.2 16.8 16.4 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.0 97.1 98.1 99.5 100.8 103.1 105.3 105.3 105.5 106.8 107.6 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 12 13 12 10 5 1 4 5 4 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 62 72 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 24. 26. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 15. 17. 19. 20. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -8. -8. -6. -4. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 6. 14. 19. 24. 27. 32. 36. 42. 45. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL052012 ERNESTO 08/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.5 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 98.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 47% is 3.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL052012 ERNESTO 08/10/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)