* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 35 39 42 48 51 54 54 54 56 58 60 V (KT) LAND 30 33 35 39 42 48 51 54 54 54 56 58 60 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 38 40 46 51 53 54 54 55 57 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 5 8 9 6 12 18 20 20 26 20 19 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 0 0 1 0 5 4 2 -3 -5 -8 -6 SHEAR DIR 354 307 314 299 284 264 229 255 254 264 247 259 247 SST (C) 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.3 28.6 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 134 137 140 142 145 147 149 149 143 147 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 133 138 141 144 147 149 149 151 152 144 147 144 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.7 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 13 12 13 11 12 700-500 MB RH 49 50 49 49 50 50 47 52 46 50 53 55 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 9 9 10 8 9 7 6 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 14 8 5 15 23 26 16 26 38 52 49 36 200 MB DIV 2 9 7 27 18 35 40 7 8 18 14 27 41 700-850 TADV -12 -8 -7 -12 -10 0 -6 -7 -1 4 2 5 1 LAND (KM) 1300 1174 1065 973 896 663 405 411 358 322 221 182 139 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.8 16.3 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 44.6 46.4 48.2 50.1 51.9 55.6 59.2 62.5 65.5 68.8 72.3 75.5 78.5 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 18 18 18 18 17 15 16 17 16 15 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 21 17 21 32 43 46 55 36 55 45 73 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 0. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 21. 24. 24. 24. 26. 28. 30. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 12.6 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.3 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.0 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 20.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/10/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)