* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/10/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 57 55 51 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 57 55 51 39 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 58 56 53 50 44 37 30 24 19 15 DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 7 13 7 20 18 18 13 9 3 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -3 -2 -2 2 -3 0 1 3 6 5 1 SHEAR DIR 360 77 153 139 155 124 128 112 124 106 138 67 158 SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.4 25.0 24.7 23.9 23.4 23.1 22.9 22.6 22.4 22.1 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 119 116 114 110 107 99 93 89 88 85 84 80 78 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -52.7 -52.0 -51.5 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.9 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 67 68 62 60 58 54 53 51 48 50 49 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 14 15 15 15 11 11 8 6 5 5 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 7 12 8 17 24 36 46 40 41 55 67 47 53 200 MB DIV 35 23 22 0 -8 -2 26 -7 18 22 22 -18 -3 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -3 -6 -6 2 6 11 14 12 LAND (KM) 1069 1057 1046 1029 1013 997 990 1008 1021 1037 1084 1146 1207 LAT (DEG N) 17.4 17.7 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.6 20.1 20.4 20.6 20.9 21.1 21.4 21.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.1 119.3 119.5 119.7 120.2 120.5 120.9 121.3 121.9 122.8 123.9 124.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 4 5 4 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -3. -7. -12. -16. -21. -24. -25. -28. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -7. -7. -11. -14. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -9. -21. -30. -45. -58. -67. -74. -77. -78. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/10/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.5 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.5 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 3.9%)