* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/10/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 43 43 46 48 53 56 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 40 41 43 43 46 48 53 56 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 34 37 39 39 39 39 41 45 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 8 8 12 13 14 26 19 23 16 19 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 2 0 -1 1 1 1 0 -2 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 291 301 316 282 272 241 238 254 251 276 244 267 271 SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.6 28.5 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 134 137 138 139 142 146 149 150 147 146 149 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 136 140 142 143 146 150 152 152 147 144 150 147 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.8 -53.8 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 13 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 47 48 52 52 52 53 53 55 55 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 10 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 8 3 11 17 24 8 21 30 30 37 34 25 200 MB DIV 13 14 26 16 28 47 27 9 8 24 10 31 21 700-850 TADV -6 -9 -13 -11 -4 -8 -6 -6 -2 1 6 -3 0 LAND (KM) 1176 1068 980 911 875 547 394 429 322 267 200 111 192 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.0 15.6 16.3 16.8 17.1 LONG(DEG W) 46.3 48.1 49.8 51.6 53.4 57.0 60.4 63.8 67.0 70.0 72.9 76.1 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 16 15 15 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 21 18 20 31 41 49 46 49 42 70 36 95 81 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 10. 11. 13. 13. 16. 18. 23. 27. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/10/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 58.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 26.2 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 16.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/10/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)