* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/10/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 56 52 46 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 59 56 52 46 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 59 56 53 49 41 33 26 20 15 DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 4 8 14 13 17 17 16 14 8 4 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -2 0 2 0 8 6 4 1 SHEAR DIR 48 101 143 165 161 126 135 125 113 89 28 185 273 SST (C) 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.4 24.1 23.5 22.9 22.6 22.6 22.4 22.2 22.0 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 116 113 108 104 100 95 88 83 84 82 80 79 77 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -51.8 -51.5 -51.2 -50.8 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 66 67 61 58 59 56 55 55 54 55 52 50 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 16 15 13 10 10 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 9 11 20 29 44 42 57 49 56 52 45 76 46 200 MB DIV 22 3 -5 7 -6 9 18 5 12 12 3 11 -49 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -3 -2 0 -7 -1 0 7 10 7 15 9 LAND (KM) 1018 1003 990 979 970 947 949 944 944 952 979 1023 1081 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.5 20.1 20.8 21.2 21.2 21.5 21.6 21.8 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.2 119.4 119.6 119.8 120.0 120.5 120.9 120.9 121.4 121.9 122.7 123.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 1 2 3 3 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -14. -20. -25. -27. -29. -31. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -18. -19. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -6. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -14. -28. -41. -57. -69. -76. -80. -83. -84. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/10/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.3 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)