* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/10/12 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 43 45 46 49 52 56 58 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 42 43 45 46 49 52 56 58 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 33 35 38 39 40 40 42 45 50 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 7 12 15 18 25 18 18 15 20 16 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 2 -6 -2 -4 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 298 304 271 259 243 226 251 251 259 234 252 237 256 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.4 28.7 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 138 139 142 145 147 149 149 144 149 149 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 138 140 143 145 148 150 152 151 144 148 149 147 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -53.2 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 11 13 12 13 12 700-500 MB RH 50 48 49 49 50 54 54 52 54 53 54 55 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 9 8 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 5 8 10 9 16 4 17 23 36 31 29 1 200 MB DIV 9 31 23 31 42 61 1 21 9 11 3 18 14 700-850 TADV -9 -13 -14 -7 -4 -9 -7 -6 0 1 3 0 2 LAND (KM) 1046 969 907 860 693 428 420 341 288 174 165 69 345 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.0 14.5 15.0 15.5 16.1 16.8 17.3 17.7 LONG(DEG W) 48.6 50.3 51.9 53.7 55.4 58.8 61.9 65.2 68.7 71.9 74.8 78.1 81.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 16 17 17 17 16 16 17 16 15 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 26 32 39 52 58 48 56 59 62 103 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 28. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -20. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 13. 15. 16. 19. 22. 26. 28. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/10/12 12 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.8 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 60.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.4 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/10/2012 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)