* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 36 37 39 42 43 45 51 57 62 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 36 37 39 42 43 45 51 57 62 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 33 34 35 35 36 37 41 47 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 13 11 14 23 21 24 22 20 13 16 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 0 1 2 1 -2 -2 -2 -3 -5 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 275 251 254 253 238 240 261 259 270 268 311 322 17 SST (C) 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 139 140 142 143 146 149 151 145 145 145 145 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 143 145 147 150 152 152 146 147 148 146 160 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.8 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 48 51 50 53 52 52 55 52 52 54 60 61 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 9 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 17 12 11 23 9 12 23 34 46 44 33 17 200 MB DIV 41 35 31 45 54 11 2 3 11 7 26 16 21 700-850 TADV -16 -16 -9 -5 -8 -8 -7 1 1 2 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) 951 901 785 627 489 390 371 309 224 248 203 213 173 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.3 14.9 15.3 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 50.9 52.7 54.4 56.1 57.8 61.3 64.6 67.9 71.1 74.6 78.4 82.1 85.7 STM SPEED (KT) 20 17 17 17 17 17 16 16 16 17 18 17 18 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 34 44 53 52 50 49 78 38 96 70 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 12. 13. 15. 21. 27. 32. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.2 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 62.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 36.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 56.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/10/2012 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)