* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * GILMA EP072012 08/10/12 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 42 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 50 47 42 35 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 46 42 39 35 28 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 17 18 19 20 21 17 12 7 6 3 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 0 -1 0 -2 3 3 6 4 7 0 1 SHEAR DIR 108 148 152 148 146 129 121 112 80 24 10 302 273 SST (C) 24.6 24.2 23.8 23.5 23.3 22.9 22.6 22.3 22.1 21.8 21.7 21.4 21.1 POT. INT. (KT) 107 102 98 94 92 88 85 81 80 77 77 73 70 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -51.9 -51.7 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.6 -51.0 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 61 60 60 58 54 54 52 52 52 51 45 39 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 14 13 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 33 45 41 52 57 49 57 45 40 30 12 12 200 MB DIV 11 3 0 -5 1 10 10 -3 -9 -5 -15 -13 -24 700-850 TADV -4 -2 -1 -3 -5 -1 1 1 9 4 9 4 3 LAND (KM) 983 965 950 943 937 941 936 944 978 1017 1076 1168 1235 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.8 21.3 21.6 21.8 22.1 22.3 22.6 23.0 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 119.7 119.8 120.0 120.1 120.4 120.9 121.4 122.1 122.9 123.8 125.1 126.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 6 CX,CY: -1/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=580) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -18. -22. -23. -24. -26. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -15. -22. -36. -51. -62. -70. -75. -79. -80. -81. ** 2011 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP072012 GILMA 08/10/12 18 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-20.0 to 35.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 17.0 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 0.0 Range: 0.0 to 67.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.4 Range: 44.8 to 134.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 Range:-10.0 to 129.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.0 Range: 64.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.7%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.9%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.4%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.9%)