* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/11/12 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 36 37 39 41 45 49 56 62 64 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 36 37 39 41 45 49 56 62 64 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 32 32 32 32 33 34 38 45 55 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 17 18 19 27 27 20 24 9 13 11 16 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 -5 -3 -6 -4 -3 N/A SHEAR DIR 251 244 249 244 233 255 254 274 266 311 334 338 N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.0 28.4 28.4 28.5 29.0 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 141 142 144 147 149 150 139 145 144 145 152 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 146 147 148 152 155 156 142 146 143 140 145 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.9 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -53.3 -53.5 -52.8 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 13 11 13 11 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 54 53 55 52 53 52 57 55 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 19 15 18 16 22 33 42 51 37 23 -4 N/A 200 MB DIV 41 30 38 43 45 -2 7 -1 12 8 6 -5 N/A 700-850 TADV -15 -10 -8 -10 -12 -7 0 0 0 0 -3 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 905 736 569 448 392 406 341 293 239 209 304 274 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.8 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.2 18.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 53.1 55.0 56.9 58.7 60.5 64.5 68.5 72.3 75.7 78.9 81.5 83.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 18 18 18 19 19 17 16 14 12 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 26 39 35 32 42 64 54 67 90 66 70 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 22 CX,CY: -21/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 738 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -13. -14. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 8. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 11. 15. 19. 26. 32. 34. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/11/12 00 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.8 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.0 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/11/2012 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)