* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * SEVEN AL072012 08/11/12 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 39 43 47 53 59 65 68 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 39 43 47 53 59 65 68 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 31 31 33 36 41 50 61 DIS Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 20 21 25 25 20 21 16 13 10 12 10 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 2 -5 -2 -3 -6 -4 -4 -4 N/A SHEAR DIR 238 248 246 237 241 251 265 291 290 351 335 334 N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.3 28.1 28.4 28.3 28.7 29.3 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 145 147 149 150 144 141 145 143 147 157 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 147 151 153 155 157 148 143 146 141 142 150 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.7 -53.9 -53.6 -53.5 -53.4 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 11 11 11 12 11 12 11 12 11 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 51 53 54 55 54 55 57 60 59 59 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 8 7 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 19 16 21 14 15 25 39 53 53 32 20 2 N/A 200 MB DIV 30 34 40 34 24 2 1 17 25 23 36 22 N/A 700-850 TADV -9 -7 -10 -12 -8 -3 0 2 2 -1 -2 -5 N/A LAND (KM) 727 557 422 372 400 366 271 328 230 276 172 222 N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.0 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.6 14.7 15.1 15.7 16.3 17.2 18.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.1 57.0 58.9 60.8 62.7 66.7 70.6 74.4 77.8 81.0 83.5 85.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 18 18 18 19 19 18 18 16 14 11 11 N/A HEAT CONTENT 27 38 36 32 46 39 87 31 95 63 64 70 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 725 (MEAN=623) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 72.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 11. 17. 21. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 23. 29. 35. 38. ** 2011 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL072012 SEVEN 08/11/12 06 UTC ** 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 34.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range:-21.0 to 165.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.6 Range: 33.8 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.4 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12.8%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 8.4%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%) ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL072012 SEVEN 08/11/2012 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)